Russian jets over Estonia ignored signals from NATO pilots, officials say

Estonian officials dismissed the denial, saying the violation was confirmed by radar and visual contact and suggested it could be a tactic to draw Western resources away from Ukraine.

The Russian MIG-31 fighters entered Estonian airspace between 9:58 a.m. and 10:10 a.m. local time Friday in the area of Vaindloo, a small island located in the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea, the Estonian military said. A ministry statement said it was the fourth airspace violation by Russia this year.

It still “needs to be confirmed,” if the border violation was deliberate or not, Col. Ants Kiviselg, the commander of Estonia’s Military Intelligence Center, told The Associated Press. Regardless, he said, the Russian jets "must have known that they are in (Estonian) airspace.”

The Russian pilots didn't pose a “military threat,” Kiviselg said.

But although they acknowledged communication from the Italian pilots flying F-35 fighter jets, they apparently ignored it and “didn’t actually follow the signs,” which is partly why they were in Estonian airspace for so long, he added.

“Why they didn’t do it, that’s a question for the Russian pilots,” Kiviselg said.

‘It could be big trouble’

The Russian jets came from an airfield near the city of Petrozavodsk, in northwestern Russia, and were heading to Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland. They were tracked by two Finnish fighter jets before being escorted by the two Italian jets, which took off from Estonia's Ämari Air Base and followed them into international skies, Kiviselg said.

U.S. President Donald Trump responded Friday by telling reporters he will be briefed by aides on the incursion. “I don’t love it,” he said, adding: “I don’t like when that happens. It could be big trouble, but I’ll let you know later.”

Margus Tsahkna, Estonia's foreign minister, told AP the incident was “a very serious violation of NATO airspace.” The last time Estonian airspace was violated for so long was in 2003, he said, “just before Estonia joined NATO.”

Estonia’s government responded by saying it would request consultations under Article 4 of NATO’s treaty which allows a member to formally consult with allies whenever their territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened. Poland also used the mechanism after its airspace was violated by Russian drones and, after that, NATO launched its Eastern Sentry mission to boost defenses along it’s eastern flank.

Posting on X, Lithuania's Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė suggested NATO member “Turkey set an example” of how to respond to such incidents in 2015 when it shot down a Russian fighter jet which violated its airspace for around 17 seconds.

But that situation was “totally different,” Hanno Pevkur, Estonia's defense minister said, adding that the "Russians actually killed Turks,” when Moscow used fighter jets to target what they said were militant groups near the Syrian border with Turkey.

During Friday’s incident, Estonia and its allies observed the Russian jets’ route, communication and reaction from the pilots as well as the weapons systems they were carrying and were “very confident that there is no need to shoot them down,” Pevkur said.

Czech President Petr Pavel said Saturday that NATO must respond adequately to Russian violations, including potentially by shooting down Russian jets, the Czech News Agency reported. “Russia will realize very quickly that they have made a mistake and crossed the acceptable boundaries. Unfortunately, this is teetering on the edge of conflict, but giving in to evil is simply not an option,” Pavel said.

Estonian officials maintained Saturday that there was no need to trigger Article 5, NATO's collective defense clause, despite the repeated violations by Russian jets and drones as well as allegations from Western officials that Moscow is waging a hybrid war against the West including a sabotage campaign, cyberattacks and influence operations.

Radars and visual identification

In an online statement published Saturday, Russia's Defense Ministry said its fighter jets had kept to neutral Baltic Sea waters more than 3 kilometers (1.8 miles) from Vaindloo Island.

It said the three MiG-31 jets “completed a scheduled flight from Karelia to an airfield in the Kaliningrad region" and "did not violate the borders of other states.”

Pevkur dismissed the statement, saying Estonia and its NATO allies have “multiple” radars and visual identification which confirm the Russian jets entered the country's airspace.

He suggested the “root cause” for the air violations, hybrid war and cyberattacks was to distract Western attention from Ukraine.

Moscow, Pevkur said, may be trying to provoke NATO nations into sending additional air defense assets to Estonia in the hope that Kyiv's allies do more “about our own defense," and less to support Kyiv.

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Associated Press journalist Kostya Manenkov in Tallinn, Estonia contributed to this report.