Race for control of Georgia state House already in motion

It takes 91 seats in the House to win the majority. Republicans currently hold 100 seats and have controlled the chamber since the GOP flipped it in 2004.

“House Republicans are laser-focused on building on our success from 2024 and expanding our majority in 2026,” House Speaker Jon Burns, R-Newington, said in a statement.

But Democrats are eyeing this next election cycle to make a comeback.

In 2018, the last midterm election during a Donald Trump presidency, Georgia Democrats gained 11 seats in the House. If all 80 Democrats hold their seats, a similar showing would allow them to take control of the chamber.

That may be easier said than done. Trump’s approval rating has hovered around 45%, but it is higher than it was during his first term in office.

Then there is the electoral map, which was drawn by Republicans to help them hold on to their majorities in both the state House and Senate.

“All of the easy seats have already been captured, so every seat that we have from here on out is going to be more and more difficult to win,” Hugley said.

The strategy

Leaders behind Greater Georgia, a conservative voter registration organization founded by former U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler in 2021, traveled this June to Savannah and Macon to present Gov. Brian Kemp’s No. 1 legislative priority: a bill that would limit the kinds of lawsuits people can bring and reduce the hefty verdicts.

In Macon, Republican Senate Pro Tem John F. Kennedy explained how Republicans’ narrow majority made the civil litigation legislation extremely difficult to pass.

Thirty-three of the 56 Georgia senators are Republican, but “we got a guy that votes no on everything, so we really got 32 on the best day,” Kennedy said, referring to Sen. Colton Moore, a Republican from Trenton. Three Republicans are plaintiff lawyers who had concerns about the ramifications of the legislation on their practice and their clients, and it takes 29 votes to pass a bill, he said. “That’s the challenge we had.”

In the Georgia House, the vote was even closer. Eight Republicans objected to the legislation, along with all but three Democrats. The bill passed by the requisite 91 votes.

While Republicans control the maps determining district shapes, it’s difficult to carve up metro areas and avoid pockets of Democrats while also meeting constitutional requirements: Each district must be connected, must have equal population under the “one person, one vote” rule established by the U.S. Supreme Court in 1964, and cannot discriminate on the basis of race.

Eager to chip away at Democrats’ success with people of color, Greater Georgia also traveled to Stonecrest in DeKalb County, which voted for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in 2024 with more than 90% of the vote and is 88% Black, according to census data. They met a skeptical audience, but organizers said the point was to build relationships where they historically had not been.

Credit: Miguel Martinez-Jimenez

Credit: Miguel Martinez-Jimenez

Democrats are taking aim at more rural areas that have typically been Republican strongholds but hold promise for future elections. Georgia House Democrats, including Hugley, in May visited LaGrange, Dawson, and Montezuma “to hear from Georgians who are struggling,” according to the announcement, and learn how lawmakers can better represent their constituents.

On the trail

The campaigning has already kicked off. A social media advertisement from the Georgia House GOP slammed Democrats for walking out on a vote in April that would ban gender-affirming treatment for transgender prisoners.

“Our conservative majority has consistently delivered real results on the issues that matter most to Georgia voters — from tax cuts and school security to health care and public safety,” Burns said, in the statement.

He chided Democrats for hosting Stacey Abrams as a guest speaker at some of their events and said their policies don’t resonate with people in Georgia.

“I’m confident it’s a message that will resonate at the ballot box next November,” he said.

Hugley said House Republicans are scared.

“Obviously the Republicans are concerned that we’re talking to the real people of Georgia, and it’s unusual for them to have an attack ad this far away from an election,” she said. “I take it as a compliment that they are taking note of what we’re doing, because they don’t want real Georgians to hear real time what’s going on.”

One House Democrat already preparing for 2026 elections said he is focusing his campaign on local issues he can control.

“When people ask me about federal issues, or what is happening with international issues, I’m like, ‘Look, I’m more worried about what’s happening locally,’” said Farooq Mughal, at his campaign launch event in Dacula this month.

Mughal lost his reelection bid for his seat representing the area around Dacula and Buford by just 80 votes in November.

Based on lines drawn during the redistricting process, Mughal believes he was at about a 700-vote disadvantage going into his campaign. Mughal said the fact that he came so close told him his message was getting out.

This coming election, he thinks he’ll have more wind at his back.

“Things are changing. People are not happy with tariffs, with the corporate housing crisis. There are a lot of people who are going to start feeling that pinch,” he said.

In addition to preventing Mughal from reclaiming his seat, Republicans are likely to aim their focus on House District 108 in Lilburn, which was a target of Gov. Brian Kemp’s to flip last year. State Rep. Jasmine Clark is running to unseat Democratic U.S. Rep. David Scott, leaving her seat up for grabs.

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

They may also explore options in House District 128, a Sandersville seat where Democratic state Rep. Mack Jackson, won by just 48 votes. Republicans could run a formidable candidate, or they may continue trying to convince Jackson, who supported anti-abortion restrictions in 2019 and voted in favor of Kemp’s priority legislation this year, to switch parties.

Anything could happen between now and then, said state Rep. Scott Hilton of Peachtree Corners, who lost his reelection in 2018 before winning it back in 2020.

Although some have speculated Hilton may run for a statewide office, he said he’s likely to run for reelection in his competitive North Atlanta district.

“A year in politics is a lifetime,” he said. “Our side is prepared, and we have a great message to share with voters on the campaign trail.”