Braves Report: The Smith-Shawver show

Hey, y’all.

It’s Thursday. Almost Friday.

The rain’s moved out of D.C. and we should get some Braves baseball tonight.

Things are looking up.

TONIGHT’S MATCHUP

Let’s try this again!

📺 How to watch: First pitch at 6:45 p.m. on FanDuel Sports.

⚾ The pitching matchup: AJ Smith-Shawver (3-2, 2.33) vs. Trevor Williams (2-5, 5.91)

📝 In case you missed it: They’ll make up Wednesday’s rain-canceled affair as part of a split doubleheader on Sept. 16.

KEEP IT UP, ROOK

Credit: Jason Getz/AJC

Credit: Jason Getz/AJC

I mentioned the other day that AJ Smith-Shawver, today’s starter, is getting some (very) early buzz for Rookie of the Year.

And he’s been fantastic, posting a 2.33 ERA over eight starts.

Wanna quantify things even more?

📈 The Braves have won each of Smith-Shawver’s last five starts. Over that time, he’s allowed just five earned runs in 30 innings.

📈 He’s been even better in May, allowing just one earned run in 19⅔ innings. That’s a 0.46 ERA — the fourth lowest of any qualified Major League pitcher.

📈 His split finger has been particularly devastating, with opponents hitting just .129 against it.

📈 If you subscribe to run value (an advanced metric basically assessing how a pitch affects the offense’s ability to score), Smith-Shawver’s splitter is the second most valuable in baseball.

So what’s driving the strong performances? Smith-Shawver recently pointed to “trusting my stuff” and “getting more comfortable with more reps.”

That’s undoubtedly part of the improvement — it’s a key step in any young pitcher’s development.

But here’s something else I discovered in a casual cruise through some advanced stats: During his (limited) big league appearances in 2023 and 2024, Smith-Shawver’s average arm angle registered at 51 and 52 degrees, respectively.

So far this year, it’s at 44 degrees.

What does that mean? No clue. But you gotta figure it’s making a difference, one way or another.

Remind me to follow up on it later.

DOWN ON THE FARM

Triple-A Gwinnett isn’t the only Braves farm team, of course — but there’s a lot going on down there these days.

Top pitching prospect Hurston Waldrep struck out nine over six innings of two-run ball in Louisville (here’s video!). He’s now 2-0 with a 3.12 ERA and 25 strikeouts over his last three starts, a big improvement after a rocky April.

Exiled outfielder Jarred Kelenic effectively ended things with a three-run homer in the ninth. He’s now hitting .289 and has 11 RBIs in 19 May games with the Stripers.

Once and future Brave Craig Kimbrel logged another scoreless inning.

⭐ And most importantly: Rehabbing Ronald Acuña Jr. played all nine innings in the outfield (and went 1-for-4 with a double at the plate).

LOOKING AHEAD

As AJC reporter Gabe Burns recently pointed out, the Braves’ post-Nationals schedule is a parade of postseason hopefuls.

That starts with a weekend home series with the Padres (27-19) and continues like this:

Should be an interesting few weeks — and a good test of where this Atlanta team truly stands.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Credit: Daniel Kucin Jr./AP

Credit: Daniel Kucin Jr./AP

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Until next time.