The Braves certainly aren’t dead, but the sand in the hourglass has continued to slip downward through the month of June.
Manager Brian Snitker’s club has Monday off before starting the month of July with a three-game series against the Angels on Tuesday at Truist Park. The Braves (38-45) are 10.5 games back in the division and eight games out of the National League’s final wild-card spot.
“We’re still hanging in there,” Snitker said Sunday after his squad lost to the Phillies. “I looked at where we are. We’re still giving ourselves a chance. We just need to continue to try and win (the) series.”
The Braves have 12 games left before the All-Star break, nine of which are against teams with losing records. Making a move in the win column over that stretch will be crucial.
Here are a few more key numbers to consider heading into July:
11-20: The Braves are now 11-20 in one-run games and have lost 10 of the past 11 such games. That’s the worst mark in the National League. Whether it has been a bullpen implosion or the lineup’s inability to get the timely hit (as was the case Sunday), the team’s inability to consistently win the tight ones is costing it dearly.
12: The Braves are one of four teams to have a positive run differential and a losing record alongside Boston (41-44; plus-10), Texas (41-43; plus-16) and Arizona (41-42; plus-2). That highlights the team’s offensive inconsistency, like scoring 10 runs over two games to open last week’s series in New York and then being held to just three over the final two. Or scoring only one run combined against the Phillies in the first and last game of this past weekend’s series.
12 (again): The fewest number of saves in MLB this season belongs to the Braves and its sad total of 12. The 2008 club was the last Braves team to play a full season and not record 30 saves (that squad finished fourth in the NL East). With Raisel Iglesias having been removed from the closer’s role, and with the team operating under a bullpen-by-committee for the time being, the team’s failure to shut the door in late innings has been more than detrimental.
.326: In 12 games and 46 at-bats at Triple-A Gwinnett, Jurickson Profar is hitting .326. That sort of clip would be a huge boost to a Braves outfield that is more than scuffling (Profar is expected to return to the big-league club Wednesday after serving an 80-game suspension). This season, Braves regular outfielders not named Ronald Acuña Jr. (Michael Harris II, Alex Verdugo, Eli White) have combined to hit 154-for-673 (.229) with nine homers. Harris’ 43 RBIs, second on the team, have been the lone statistical bright spot out of that trio.
7.7%: In the voice of Lloyd Christmas, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?” The Braves are by no means mathematically eliminated from postseason contention, but the odds are still not in their favor. Baseball Reference pegs the Braves’ odds of making the playoffs at 7.7%, while Opta Analyst has the number at 11.4% and FanGraphs gives the team 23.2% odds. The Braves barely made the field in 2024 as a wild-card team with 89 wins. Using that total as a benchmark, the Braves would need to win 51 of their next 79 games to be in the hunt for a spot in the postseason.
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