People are familiar with positive campaigns and upbeat messages. Likewise, people understand negative campaigns that malign opponents. But there are other ways to look at positive and negative campaigns that people do not appreciate.
Georgia Republicans, after decades of dominance in the state, are left having to consider them.
In campaigns, candidates run negative and positive ads. But challengers often run positive campaigns, in the sense that they paint a positive image of what life would be like should they win.
In Georgia, Democrats will take what voters know about the Republicans and claim they can make the state better. They will run negative ads alleging Republican mismanagement and corruption while subtly suggesting things are not as good as they could be if Democrats were in charge.
On the other hand, Republicans have a harder task. We know what the state is like under Republican rule. One must be older to remember what it was like before Sonny Perdue entered the Governor’s Mansion in 2003 as the first Republican governor since Reconstruction.
GOP will have to go negative to confront Dems
Credit: Erick Erickson
Credit: Erick Erickson
The Republican sweep in the early 2000s saw many Democrats simply change the letter after their name from “D” to “R” and keep on legislating as they always had been.
Only over time, as they retired and were replaced by lifelong Republicans, did anything change. Frankly, not a great deal did change until more recently.
Now, having dominated the state for two decades, Republicans will have to run a negative campaign making the case that things are good and Democrats would make them bad.
It will be hard to do so because what exactly have Democrats been able to do in order to provide the contrast?
That is one reason Republicans hope former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms is the Democratic nominee. Republicans could contrast her management of Atlanta to Gov. Brian Kemp’s management of the state or even current Mayor Andre Dickens’ tenure compared to hers.
If not Bottoms, Republicans have a real desire that Georgia Democrats go hard left. Suburban voters who do not like Donald Trump still prefer him to progressive Democrats.
Credit: Christopher Dowd/Athens Political Nerd via AP
Credit: Christopher Dowd/Athens Political Nerd via AP
State House special election is a bad omen for GOP
But, in 2026, a lot of those suburban voters will be unhappy with the national economy.
The question is if that dissatisfaction will translate into state elections. Special elections in 2025, including the recent 121 race where the solidly Republican House District 121 outside Athens elected a Democrat, suggest both Republican enthusiasm is waning and Democrats are highly motivated to win.
Add in the Public Service Commission races (though I still think having them in an off-off year on the same day as municipal elections played a bigger role than voter anger), and the GOP is facing real problems.
The parallel is, perhaps, 2018. President Donald Trump was extremely unpopular that year. Gov. Kemp got Trump’s endorsement and became identified with Trump. Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams used that to her advantage and came closer to winning a statewide race than any Democrats since Roy Barnes left office in 2003. But she still fell short of even getting in a runoff.
Democratic U.S. Sens. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock were blessed with a Republican electorate that talked itself out of showing up for runoffs in 2021. Warnock again was blessed having Herschel Walker as his opponent in 2022. Warnock, unlike Abrams, made it into a runoff and won.
Credit: AP
Credit: AP
Democrats hope Republicans embrace purity politics
Republicans have, of late, shown a propensity to settle scores in primaries, not actually pick the best candidate. Trump voters have entered Republican primaries insisting they find the most loyal candidate for Trump. They ended up with candidates like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Rome, who now sounds like a Democrat, and Herschel Walker who could not win the runoff.
Just as Republicans hope Democrats go far left, Democrats hope Republicans embrace the purity politics and score settling of MAGA, picking pro-Trump candidates who alienate independent and swing voters. Both sides have incentives to play in the other’s primaries this coming year.
The Democratic advantage is very simple. They have the president to campaign against, fire up their base, and persuade independents to reject MAGA in the midterms. Republicans have their own advantage.
They have 20 years of governance and a very popular incumbent governor who has been a very good steward of the state. Republicans might not want to latch on to Donald Trump, but they will latch on to Brian Kemp.
Erick Erickson is host of the nationally syndicated “Erick Erickson Show,” heard weekdays from noon to 3 p.m. on WSB radio. He is also now a contributor to the AJC.
About the Author
Keep Reading
The Latest
Featured
