Brian Kemp’s lame-duck dilemma: Swing big or play it safe?

A lame-duck governor, the Republican will face fresh challenges corralling the competing factions of his party one last time, even as ambitious politicians charting a post-Kemp future see less reason to follow his lead.

His friends and allies say he still has plenty of political juice to tackle longstanding issues, such as strengthening mental health services or steering new investments to the state’s ports and infrastructure.

Others expect a more modest — and more achievable — set of policies. They suggest his most significant role might be deterring election-year red meat, urging caution on efforts to eliminate the income tax or blocking attempts to raid Georgia’s more than $14 billion surplus fund.

For now, the governor has been tight-lipped. Unlike previous years, he has yet to preview his top bills ahead of the Jan. 12 start of the session, though he’s told legislators in closed-door meetings he’s “looking at whatever makes it to my desk.”

Kemp spokesman Carter Chapman said the governor wasn’t ready to talk specifics, but added his 2026 agenda is focused on “fighting through lingering inflation caused by bad Democratic policies on the federal level and to further grow Georgia’s economy.”

‘Heaven and earth’

Kemp may have less leverage than ever before to carry out his plans.

Heading into his final year as governor, he’ll have to wrestle with lawmakers who are looking past his final year to November’s election.

Some of Kemp’s political allies could separate from him as they pursue their own goals. Other legislators are pursuing statewide or federal office, or they are watching for primary challenges and general election fights.

What’s more, his push this year to revamp Georgia’s civil litigation laws, a yearslong “tort reform” effort, came at a considerable cost to his political capital.

Credit: Olivia Bowdoin for the AJC

Credit: Olivia Bowdoin for the AJC

“Kemp moved heaven and earth to give insurance companies their tort reform bill last session, including sending threatening mailers in Republican lawmakers’ districts ahead of the vote,” said Democratic state Sen. Josh McLaurin, who is running for lieutenant governor.

“I wouldn’t imagine that leaves much gas in the tank, especially in an election year when nearly every Republican but him is angling for something.”

‘He’s still the governor’

Kemp still has some major tools at his disposal.

He can dangle judgeships, board seats and other coveted appointments in front of wavering lawmakers and power brokers, many of which will extend far beyond his term. And he has the first and final say on Georgia’s roughly $38 billion budget, as well as the power of a veto pen he hasn’t been afraid to wield over his two terms.

Polls show he’s the most popular elected official in the state, giving him the bully pulpit to hammer home his agenda and rally Republicans who might drift away in an election year.

Credit: AP

Credit: AP

Plus, he’ll inevitably have his future on his mind as he burnishes his legacy and debates what to do next. At 62, Kemp could yet seek a U.S. Senate seat in 2028 or even make a run for the White House now that he’s struck a lasting truce with President Donald Trump.

“I expect his priorities will include protecting the state’s multibillion-dollar rainy day fund and opposing any repeal of the state income tax,” said Howard Franklin, a well-known strategist and lobbyist. “Those are strategic moves designed to burnish his credentials for a potential White House bid.”

More immediately, he’ll continue to promote former football coach Derek Dooley’s Senate campaign, a high-stakes political gamble that tests the governor’s clout and will help shape how he’s remembered.

Kennesaw State University political scientist Jason Shepherd, a former Cobb GOP chair and Kemp board appointee, said the governor might not push for an eye-watering legislative overhaul. But he cautioned he won’t hesitate to wield his power to “remind legislators he’s still the governor.”

“He isn’t one to just ride quietly off into the sunset,” Shepherd said.

‘Flex harder’

If he plays it safer, there are parallels to his Republican predecessors during their last year in office.

Gov. Sonny Perdue had little financial wiggle room during the 2010 session as he faced a tightening budget. He focused on shoring up state finances, pushed water-conservation rules during a worsening drought, and pursued targeted public safety and tax and spending measures.

Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC

Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC

Eight years later, Gov. Nathan Deal entered his last session pushing legislation that was smaller in scope but no less complicated, such as an overhaul of adoption laws that had stalled for years and new limits on cash bail for poor defendants.

At the time, Deal described his pared-down legislative wish list as strategic. “Sometimes you just have to go back and continue to improve on what you’ve already done,” he said.

Then again, Kemp has a larger budget surplus than previous governors and one last chance to use it. He may be enticed to surprise many under the Gold Dome and swing for the fences.

“He may very well flex his political muscle harder this session than previous years,” said Joshua Edmonds, a veteran Republican political strategist.

“If I know Gov. Kemp, he’ll never let a session go to waste.”