Special elections in Georgia can be unpredictable — as was seen earlier this month when a Democrat flipped an Athens-area House seat.
With a message focused on health care and housing, Democrat Eric Gisler defeated Republican Mack “Dutch” Guest to take over a district in parts of Clarke and Oconee counties, previously represented by Republican Marcus Wiedower.
Democratic Party of Georgia Chairman Charlie Bailey said they’re taking the lessons they learned from wins like Gisler’s — and flipping two Public Service Commission seats last month — and applying them to next fall’s general elections.
“People see that these Republicans have made the American Dream less attainable now than it was 22 years ago when they took power,” he said. “And guess what? You don’t have to put up with it. You can do something about it. And they came out and voted against it.”
While only one seat out of the four completed special elections held this fall changed party hands, the competitiveness of races in once-thought-to-be squarely Republican districts puts control of the Legislature in play as lawmakers head into the start of a new session and a midterm year. A fifth race has a runoff election early next year.
A special election is held when a legislator vacates their seat in the middle of their two-year term. There are no primary races, putting candidates from all parties on one ballot. Voter turnout is traditionally low.
Republicans currently control both chambers of the General Assembly. The hold a 99-81 advantage in the House and 33-23 in the Senate. Democrats have been working for years to chip away at their lead.
Legislative districts in Georgia are drawn by the party that has control of the chambers, typically in a way that guarantee wins based on party. But, in metro areas of Georgia’s bigger cities where a large number of voters support Democrats, Republicans are forced to draw districts that leave wiggle room to flip their seats.
Brian Robinson, a GOP strategist who consults the Georgia House Republican Caucus, said it’s not unusual for local races to go against the party of the sitting president.
“It’s always important to keep an eye on these special elections,” he said. “Even if they’re not predictive, it speaks to the environment.”
For example, a Democrat won in a district similar to the one held by Wiedower in a special election eight years ago, which also occurred in the first year of President Donald Trump’s first administration, only for it to flip back to a Republican the following year.
“A lot of the environment is because of people feeling squeezed by inflation and rising prices and they don’t have high hopes for things getting better. That’s always a bad spot politically,” he said.
Robinson said if things turn around economically next year it will take some of the pressure off Republican candidates.
Senate Democratic Leader Harold Jones of Augusta said if Democrats continue the work they did in the Athens-area race, they’ll do well next fall.
“If Democrats continue to work hard to get the turnout up and really energize voters, I think we have a good fighting chance,” Jones said. “I think we’re going to have the chance of actually being able to flip some of those (closer) seats next year.”
Races in three other districts this year remained in control of the departing lawmaker’s party.
Two more special elections will be held in January, with both expected to remain in Republican control. One is a runoff in a Canton-based district that was held by state Rep. Mandi Ballinger, who died earlier this year. The other is a Macon-area seat that was recently vacated by state Sen. John Kennedy, who stepped down to focus on his campaign for lieutenant governor.
Here is what happened in other legislative races this fall:
Senate
- In September, north metro Atlanta voters selected Jason Dickerson, an investment manager and trucking company founder who lives in Canton, in a special election. He replaced former state Sen. Brandon Beach, who resigned earlier this year when he was tapped to serve as U.S. treasurer. Both are Republicans.
While Dickerson won, Democrat Debra Shigley performed better than expected. Dickerson received 61% of the vote. Beach, then a seven-term incumbent, won with 70% of the vote last year.
House
- In a Gwinnett-based House seat, 21-year-old Democrat Akbar Ali won in a runoff election earlier this month to replace Democratic state Rep. Shelly Hutchinson, who resigned this summer to care for a family member. She ran unopposed in 2024 and won with about 59% of the vote in 2022. Ali defeated fellow Democrat Marqus Cole to represent the district covering Lawrenceville and Snellville.
- In a district that spans from parts of West Cobb County, through Atlanta and into South Fulton, a recently vacated state Senate seat stayed in Democrats’ control. Former Cobb County School Board member Jaha Howard, D-Smyrna, won his special election runoff this week and will complete the term of Jason Esteves, who stepped down earlier this year to focus on his run for governor.
The first election in 2026 will take place over a Canton-based House District. Republican Bill Fincher and Democrat Scott Sanders will head to a runoff election Jan. 6 after neither received the majority in a six-candidate contest this month to win outright.
Sanders made it to the runoff thanks to vote splitting among GOP candidates, but he follows in Shigley’s footsteps in Cherokee County.
The most recent elected official to step down is former state Sen. John Kennedy, a Macon Republican who resigned to focus on his campaign for lieutenant governor. Six candidates, five Republicans and one Democrat, filed paperwork to replace Kennedy in a special election scheduled for Jan. 20.
Robinson, the Republican strategist, said the party will be fine if they acknowledge that the environment is challenging and recruit “really good candidates.”
“And understand you need to run in 2026 like the underdogs,” Robinson said. “I think Republicans need to go into 2026 with vim and vigor.”
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