Ossoff finds firmer footing as 2026 race takes shape

It marks a dizzying shift from a year ago, when Democratic leaders were reeling after President Donald Trump recaptured Georgia and energized Republicans dreamed of rallying behind Gov. Brian Kemp to take on the first-term lawmaker.

Ossoff now sits on a $21 million war chest, having raised more campaign cash over the last five years than any other member of Congress on the ballot in 2026, according to federal financial records.

He has fended off any serious primary challenge while consolidating Democratic anger over Trump’s second term. He has leaned into that energy, pledging to oppose Trump’s policies and even support another impeachment while also making entreaties to the middle.

That sense of momentum has only been bolstered by recent Democratic wins, including the party’s flips of two Public Service Commission seats and an upset victory last week in a special election for a Republican-leaning House seat.

“This is one of the most unpopular policy agendas in American history,” Ossoff said in an interview. “It’s not just Democrats, it’s independents and many of the president’s own supporters and his own base who now oppose the way this administration is acting.”

The developments have Democrats reminiscing about the heady months before the 2020 election, when Ossoff and U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock rode a wave of anti-Trump energy to runoff victories that flipped control of the chamber.

Credit: Kitchen Table for the AJC

Credit: Kitchen Table for the AJC

Republicans aren’t in panic mode, but there is growing unease over a seat once seen as their most flippable prize — the only Democratic-held Senate seat on the midterm ballot in a state Trump carried in 2024.

“Republicans are currently unfocused, unmotivated, unorganized, uninspired and underfunded,” said Cole Muzio, who leads the conservative Frontline Policy Council and warns the GOP may have to play more defense than offense next year.

“Republicans would like to be able to focus on ousting Ossoff, but unless the dynamic changes, our attention better be more on keeping what we have,” he said.

Credit: AJC

Credit: AJC

The biggest GOP setback in the Senate race came in May when Kemp resisted intense pressure to run against Ossoff and instead backed newcomer Derek Dooley, a former football coach with no political track record.

It’s now a three-way GOP contest between Dooley and U.S. Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins with no consensus candidate and little indication Trump will soon step in to unify the field. And few expect the backbiting between the trio, which has recently ebbed, to stay that way as the May primary approaches.

No Democrat is declaring victory this early, of course. Party veterans can point to plenty of cycles when optimism proved premature. But conservatives warn the party needs a wake-up.

“We need to get our act together. We have a good plan, but saying we’re MAGA is not good enough,” said Insurance Commissioner John King, who added that a muddled party message and a lackadaisical approach could doom his party in 2026. “We can’t take things for granted.”

How did we get here?

In the days after Trump’s 2024 win, Georgia Democrats were on the defensive. Ossoff talked of searching for ways to work with Trump rather than all-out defiance.

And Ossoff, the first Jewish U.S. senator in Georgia history, was also facing backlash for voting to block some U.S. arms sales to Israel.

While some of Ossoff’s pro-Israel supporters remain uneasy, the controversy over the votes has largely faded as more Democratic elected officials have shifted toward his position and fights over Trump’s agenda and broader affordability concerns take center stage.

That includes a Republican-led Senate vote this month to reject an extension of expiring health care subsidies that Ossoff has made a staple of his campaign argument.

An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll puts him on firm footing as 2025 ends. About 80% of likely Democratic primary voters approve of Ossoff’s performance, while only 10% do not. More strikingly, roughly one-fifth of GOP voters say they strongly or somewhat approve of how he’s handling his job.

Democratic Party of Georgia Chair Charlie Bailey said Ossoff is in a strong position, but he issued a warning of his own that Republicans are prepared to spend “ungodly amounts” to unseat him.

“We’ve got to make sure our infrastructure is built up,” Bailey said. “That’s why we’re building what will be the biggest and best coordinated campaign the state has ever seen. Because we don’t take anything for granted.”

Republicans, meanwhile, are trying new tactics to unsettle Ossoff. Collins deployed a controversial AI ad against Ossoff. Carter pleaded with Trump to send more federal immigration officers to Atlanta. Dooley labels all his adversaries as products of a hopelessly broken Washington.

Carter, Collins and Dooley are also pummeling Ossoff over his opposition to Trump’s signature domestic policy package, which extends tax cuts and bolsters immigration enforcement spending by slashing federal health care and safety net programs.

Credit: Jason Getz/AJC

Credit: Jason Getz/AJC

“Look, defeating an incumbent U.S. senator is a tall order. But we’ve got great candidates across the board vying for the Republican nomination,” Georgia GOP chair Josh McKoon said on the AJC’s “Politically Georgia” podcast.

“The big difference from six years ago is Jon Ossoff told Georgians then he was a middle of the road senator. He has compiled a voting record and a legislative record that clearly demonstrates that is not true,” McKoon said. “He is much more aligned with California Democrats than Georgia Democrats. And we’re going to prosecute that case.”

‘Battle for the soul’

Ossoff has resisted pressure to choose between confrontation and compromise.

He voted against ending the government shutdown, a move that energized a Democratic base eager for more grit from elected leaders battling Trump’s administration.

But he’s also displayed a studied bipartisanship, including promoting his partnership this week with Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith of Mississippi on legislation to cut income taxes for qualifying small businesses. While lawmakers from both parties regularly sign onto bipartisan proposals, Ossoff is certain to highlight this legislation to former Trump voters torn about their midterm choices.

That dual-track approach is unfolding as Democrats point to unmistakable signs of grassroots energy. Last year, Democrat Eric Gisler captured 39% of the vote in a northeast Georgia House district drawn for Republicans. Last week, he stunned the GOP by winning the seat outright with 51%.

Credit: AP

Credit: AP

“It definitely bodes well for Ossoff. There was a huge blue wave in 2018, and I see that happening again next year,” Gisler said. “Because the second Trump administration is even worse than the first one.”

In an unusual twist, Ossoff’s case is also being reinforced by one of his fiercest critics. Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene stunned Republicans by abruptly announcing her January retirement. The Rome Republican has since warned that the party is headed for midterm defeat because of its unswerving loyalty to Trump.

Muzio, a close Kemp ally, said Republicans can still regroup — but only by acknowledging the scale of the challenge ahead. He said echoing “cheesy talking points and campaigning for the Mar-a-Lago crowd” in a bid to out-Trump one another won’t cut it.

“It’s past time to wake up, past time to stop pretending recent losses are mere bad fortune and circumstance,” he said. “And it’s past time to actively make the case that we really are in a battle for the soul of our state.”