Atlanta United’s search is on for its next manager.
Whomever is selected by President Garth Lagerwey and Sporting Director Chris Henderson, they will be tasked with breaking a six-season string of, at best, average performances.
Since 2020, when COVID-19 disrupted everything, Atlanta United has qualified for the playoffs four times but hasn’t made it past the quarterfinals. Its record in the U.S. Open Cup and Leagues Cup is even worse.
Brad Guzan, in his final interview as a player after Saturday’s 1-1 draw with D.C. United, said if he knew why the malaise started, it would have been fixed a long time ago. But he said a possible solution can be found in positive change.
“It can’t be change for change,” he said. “It has to be positive change. There has to be impactful change, and there has to be meaning behind what is going on in terms of the group, in terms of individuals, in terms of players coming, players going — all of those things play a huge, huge role.”
Guzan wouldn’t go into specifics, which was understandable considering the circumstances.
There are probabilities and patterns of success. When you look at the team’s signings the first few seasons, so many were hits and so few were misses. Most of the misses were selections in the expansion draft.
Because Darren Eales, Carlos Bocanegra and Gerardo Martino were new to MLS, it was impossible to gauge how their signings would turn out because they had no previous results in the league.
They obviously succeeded, winning the MLS Cup in 2018 and, with new manager Frank de Boer, the U.S. Open and Campeones Cup in 2019.
If not for a saved penalty kick, Atlanta United likely would have hosted the MLS Cup again in 2019. It’s hard to imagine it would have lost.
With so many successes, it’s almost impossible within MLS rules to keep a team together. Players will demand more money because of the results. Tough decisions must be made.
It’s one of the faults of MLS: It’s very difficult to keep success going in a salary-capped league, and too easy to keep ruts going because of the limited methods to turn over rosters.
Thus starts the challenge of keeping the success going with new players and new managers.
Atlanta United obviously wasn’t able to keep that success going from its first three years. Which brings us back to probabilities and patterns.
Lagerwey replaced Eales ahead of the 2023 season. Henderson arrived before this season. Both have proven histories of success in MLS.
Lagerwey at Real Salt Lake won MLS Cup in 2009, was runner-up in the CONCACAF Champions League in 2010-11 and finished second in MLS Cup in 2013.
When Lagerwey went to Seattle, where he and Henderson worked together, it won MLS Cups in 2016 and ’19, finished runner-up in ’17 and ’20 and won the 2022 Champions League.
Henderson went to Miami ahead of the 2022 season. The Herons won the 2023 Leagues Cup and the 2024 Supporters Shield.
Those results make Atlanta United’s poor record, particularly this past season, even more odd. It also gives hope for the future.
Ronny Deila was, in hindsight, a poor choice as manager. Though he too had a pattern of success, the team cobbled together its worst record.
So many of the players signed under Lagerwey the past few seasons, so far, are individually talented but haven’t worked together well with those around them.
But the histories of Lagerwey and Henderson indicate they know what they are doing. They have experienced success after successes.
They haven’t forgotten how to win. They haven’t forgotten how to build franchises.
Their histories, their patterns, prove it.
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