Lane Kiffin drama spills into CFP rankings discussion, scenario

Kiffin is expected to announce his coaching future after the Rebels play at Mississippi State at noon on Friday.

If Kiffin chooses to leave Ole Miss -- and not coach in the College Football Playoff -- it could influence the Rebels’ ranking, per CFP chairman Hunter Yurachek on the playoff teleconference Tuesday night.

“We’ll take care of that when it happens, we don’t look ahead,” said Yurachek. “The loss of a player, loss of a key coach, is in the principles of how we rank the teams.

“It could be considered by the committee.”

Other key CFP issues discussed and/or noted after Tuesday’s CFP rankings were announced on the CFP teleconference:

Georgia football resume

Yurachek noted Georgia’s strengths when asked how the committee viewed the Bulldogs’ resume, which could prove key as UGA (10-1) hopes to hold on to the No. 4 spot with a win over No. 23 Georgia Tech at 3:30 p.m. on Friday even if it doesn’t play in the SEC championship game.

“You look at Georgia, they have got some impressive wins over Tennessee, Ole Miss and Texas,” said Yurachek, who is also the athletic director at Arkansas.

“And then you look at on both sides of the ball; they are really strong, obviously, defensively, and I think that quarterback is really coming into their own,” he said. “Their relative scoring offense is in the top 25 in the country. Their relative scoring defense is in the top 10.

“They have been very consistent on both sides of the ball and found ways to win those close games.”

Texas Tech (10-1), which sits in the No. 5 spot, plays at West Virginia at noon Saturday and projects to face No. 11 BYU in the Big 12 championship game on Dec. 6 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

The Red Raiders only loss was at Arizona State, 26-22, one of two games they were missing their starting quarterback, Behren Morton.

The Sun Devils’ move up to No. 20 in the CFP rankings enhances the Texas Tech resume, so Georgia may need a convincing win over the Yellow Jackets to offset other data points the committee applies.

Strength of Schedule application

SEC coaches have been sounding off in past weeks over the strength of schedule metric not carrying enough weight in the rankings.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution asked Rich Clark, the executive director, about his 2024 quote indicating that strength of schedule (SOS) would carry significant weight, and how that doesn’t seem to apply to some SEC teams -- Alabama (9-2, No. 9 SOS) and Vanderbilt (9-2, No. 26 SOS) -- being ranked behind a team with the same record but weaker schedule strength (Notre Dame, 9-2, No. 34 SOS).

Clark said in October of 2024 that schedule strength was “…. one (metric) that cross-cuts across conferences and team schedules,” and Clark said in October of 2024, “it helps us to look at teams in a more fair manner.”

RELATED: New-look committee shares importance of schedule strength

Clark repeated the importance of schedule strength but noted it was but one of many metrics.

When pressed by the AJC for what metrics were canceling out strength of schedule advantage, in the case of comparing Alabama and Notre Dame, Clark was vague.

“I think one of the most important factors for this committee in particular is they watch the games, and they watch how a team performs,” Clark said on Tuesday night. “They watch them offensively, defensively, special teams, that’s an important factor.

“They look at the 12 correlative statistics that really are statistically indicative of strong football teams. They look at those very heavily…. it’s really hard to put your finger on one thing to say that that’s the deciding factor.”

Miami’s rise, CFP hopes

Miami is another program making a case for being ranked ahead of Notre Dame. The Hurricanes, like the Irish, have a 9-2 record and beat the Irish head-to-head, 27-24, in both teams’ season-opening game.

Yurachek noted the Irish’s consistency, but also pointed out the Hurricanes rise since the first set of rankings were released.

“What we have talked about is a committee in the middle of the season, Miami lacks some consistency, especially on the offensive side of the ball,” Yurachek said. “It appears in the last three weeks they have fixed that, especially Carson Beck is back to the Carson Beck I think that really played those first five games …. he’s completed 855 yards of passing, eight TDs and no interceptions in those three wins they have had against Syracuse and Virginia Tech and NC State.

“Miami, again, is a team very much on the rise. They have moved six spots since the initial poll has come out, and they are really the highest climber in our (CFP) Top 25 during that time.”

ACC and Georgia Tech scenario

Yurachek noted that it would be hard for Georgia Tech to make a significant jump from No. 23 into a high enough ranking to make the 12-team field as an at-large even with a win over Georgia.

“I think it would be very hard for Georgia Tech to jump that far from 23 with a win on Saturday,” Yurachek said. “But, again, can’t predict what could happen. We’ll just evaluate the games that happen this weekend and rank the teams 1 through 25.”

The Yellow Jackets only hope, it seems is to make it into and win the ACC championship game to get the automatic bid that goes with being one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.

Virginia and SMU have the inside track to play in the ACC title game. The Cavaliers can clinch a spot in the game by beating Virginia Tech, and the Mustangs can clinch a spot by winning at Cal.

The Yellow Jackets would need the following scenario to play out to play in the ACC championship game:

• Pitt beats Miami on Saturday, and

• Virginia loses to Virginia Tech, and

• SMU loses to Cal

In that scenario, the AJC has reported, Pitt would clinch a berth, and Tech would finish above Virginia and SMU based on its record versus common conference opponents all played equal times.

The ACC championship game winner is projected to get the No. 11 seed in the 12-team CFP field, based on ranking.

Group of Six consideration

Tulane (9-2) remains the projected highest-ranked Group of Six champion, but that should work itself out in the American Conference Championship Game (8 p.m. Dec. 5, ABC).

The Group of Six representative is expected to be seeded 12th in the CFP field.

Tulane can clinch a spot in the American Conference Championship Game with a win over Charlotte at 7:30 p.m. on Saturday.

“I think as long as Tulane takes care of their business, they would be in good shape,” Yurachek said.

North Texas also controls its destiny, needing a win over Temple at 3:30 p.m. on Friday.

If Tulane or North Texas lose, Navy could take a spot in the American Conference Championship Game by winning at Memphis at 7:30 p.m. on Thursday.

There remains a chance that James Madison, the projected Sun Belt Conference champion, could end up the highest ranked Group of Six champion.

The Dukes (10-1), who play at Coastal Carolina on Saturday, are the highest-ranked Group of Six team in the AP and Coaches poll, at No. 20, but the CFP selection committee utilizes its own rankings.

CFP Top 25

(with upcoming games)

1 Ohio State (11-0)

At No. 15 Michigan, noon Saturday

2. Indiana (11-0)

At Purdue, 7:30 p.m. Friday

3. Texas A&M (11-0)

At No. 16 Texas, 7:30 p.m. Friday

4. Georgia (10-1)

Vs. No. 23 Georgia Tech, 3:30 p.m. Friday

5. Texas Tech (10-1)

At West Virginia, noon Saturday

6. Oregon (10-1)

At Washington, 3:30 p.m. Saturday

7. Ole Miss (10-1)

At Mississippi State, noon Friday

8. Oklahoma (9-2)

Vs. LSU 3:30 p.m. Saturday

9. Notre Dame (9-2)

At Stanford 10:30 p.m. Saturday

10. Alabama (9-2)

At Auburn, 7:30 p.m. Saturday

11. BYU (10-1)

Vs. UCF, 1 p.m. Saturday

12. Miami (9-2)

At No. 22 Pitt, noon Saturday

13. Utah (9-2)

At Kansas, noon Friday

14. Vanderbilt (9-2)

At No. 19 Tennessee, 3:30 p.m. Saturday

15. Michigan (9-2)

Vs. No. 1 Ohio State, noon Saturday

16. Texas (8-3)

Vs. No. 3 Texas A&M, 7:30 p.m. Friday

17. USC (8-3)

Vs. UCLA, 7:30 p.m. Saturday

18. Virginia (9-2)

Vs. Virginia Tech, 7 p.m. Saturday

19. Tennessee (8-3)

Vs. No. 14 Vanderbilt, 3:30 p.m. Saturday

20. Arizona State (8-3)

Vs. Arizona 9 p.m. Friday

21. SMU (8-3)

At California 8 p.m. Saturday

22. Pitt (8-3)

Vs. No. 12 Miami, noon Saturday

23. Georgia Tech (9-2)

Vs. No. 4 Georgia, noon Saturday

24. Tulane (9-2)

Vs. Charlotte, 7:30 p.m. Saturday

25. Arizona (8-3)

At No. 20 Arizona State, 9 p.m. Friday

Projected CFP field seeds, games

First-round byes

1 Ohio State (projected Big Ten title game winner)

2 Indiana

3. Texas A&M (projected SEC title game winner)

4. Georgia

First round matchups

On campus sites, Dec. 19-20

No. 5 Texas Tech (projected Big 12 title game winner) vs. No. 12 Tulane (highest-ranked Group of Six champion)

No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 11 Virginia (projected ACC title game winner)

No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 Alabama

No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 9 Notre Dame

Quarterfinals

No. 4 Georgia vs. Winner of No. 5 Texas Tech-No. 12 Tulane

No. 1 Ohio State vs. Winner of No. 9 Notre Dame-No. 8 Oklahoma

No. 3 Texas A&M vs. Winner of No. 6 Oregon-No. 11 Virginia

No. 2 Indiana vs. Winner of No. 7 Ole Miss-No. 10 Alabama

Semifinals

Fiesta Bowl, 7:30 p.m. Jan. 8 teams TBD

Peach Bowl, 7:30 p.m. Jan. 9 teams TBD

CFP Championship Game

Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla, Jan. 19