Third CFP rankings steady at top but controversial and unsettled thereafter

For now, however, there are more questions than answers as teams scramble to fill out a 12-team field that features the top four-ranked teams receiving first-round byes.

Here are some key takeaways from the third set of CFP rankings, which were discussed by new committee chair Hunter Yurachek:

- Georgia remains in contention to play in the SEC championship game, but it’s possible the Bulldogs could secure a top-four seed and receive a first-round bye even if they don’t play in the SEC title game. If Georgia finishes the regular season 11-1 — with wins over Charlotte on Saturday and No. 16 Georgia Tech on Nov. 28 — and Alabama and Texas A&M win out and meet in the SEC title game — the Bulldogs currently project to hold their position over current No. 5 and projected Big 12 champ Texas Tech.

It is worth noting, however, the Red Raiders’ resume was bolstered Tuesday night with the addition of Big 12 members Houston (No. 23) and Arizona State (No. 25) to the top 25 of the CFP rankings. Texas Tech beat Houston 35-11, and its only loss came to the Sun Devils, 26-22.

The CFP selection committee could scrutinize Georgia’s scoring margins against Charlotte and Georgia Tech, while the Red Raiders figure to have the opportunity to bolster their resume further playing a projected Big 12 championship game against No. 11 BYU.

- Alabama maintains control of its CFP destiny, even with its drop from No. 4 to No. 10 in the rankings released Tuesday night. The Tide, with remaining games against Eastern Illinois on Saturday and at Auburn on Nov. 29, have the highest chance in the SEC to play in the conference championship game (71.6%), per ESPN metrics.

- It remains extremely likely based on the current CFP rankings that the No. 11 and No. 12 seed in the 12-team CFP field will be occupied by the automatic bids given to the ACC championship game winner and highest-ranked Group of Five championship game winner.

This is because Georgia Tech (at No. 16) and Virginia (at No. 19) are the highest-ranked ACC teams that have only one conference loss, and Tulane (No. 24) is the highest ranked Group of Five conference team.

The Yellow Jackets and Cavaliers are projected to meet in the ACC championship game, where the winner gets the automatic bid that goes to Power 4 conference members that win their respective league championship games.

As for selecting the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion, Yurachek explained why the American Conference champ, currently projected to be Tulane (8-2), could get the nod over projected Sun Belt champ James Madison (9-1), even as James Madison is ranked No. 21 in the AP Top 25 with Tulane No. 24 in that media poll.

“James Madison was in that discussion this week. It’s really their strength of schedule. They played one Power 4 team, and they lost that game at Louisville 28-14,” Yurachek said. “Then you look at the strength of Tulane’s schedule, playing three Power 4 teams … they lost to our sixth-ranked team in Ole Miss, but they beat Duke and beat Northwestern.

“They’ve got wins also in the league, in the American, a very strong league, against Memphis and East Carolina.”

- The Notre Dame-Miami debate rages on. The Irish (8-2) are at No. 9 and the Hurricanes (8-2) are at No. 13 despite former UGA quarterback Carson Beck and Miami having beaten Notre Dame 27-24 in both teams’ season-opening game.

“If Miami and Notre Dame are in a comparable range,” Yurachek said, “then head-to-head will be a significant data point we will use.”

The Hurricanes’ only win over a current top 25 CFP team was at home against Notre Dame, while the Irish’s only top 25 win came against No. 15 USC 34-24 in South Bend, Indiana.

Miami’s only real chance to make the 12-team field would be as an at-large selection, as it has two conference losses and faces extremely long odds of qualifying to play in the ACC championship game, where the winner earns an automatic bid.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, finishes the season with games against Syracuse (3-7) and Stanford (3-7) and projects to make the 12-team field with wins against those teams.

- The projections coming out of the third set of rankings add to the confusion for those that do not follow the CFP field stipulations closely.

Miami, while technically the highest-ranked ACC team, does not currently project to fill the automatic slot for that league because it’s very unlikely to reach the conference championship game.

Georgia Tech, while ranked below Miami in the current standings, is the more accurate projection. The Yellow Jackets — with one league loss compared with the Hurricanes’ two league losses — are projected as the highest-ranked ACC team to make the league title game and play for the automatic bid while Miami is left scrambling for what currently projects as a very unlikely at-large bid.

Key games this week

College football fans looking for more clarity in the CFP rankings and projections will want to keep a close eye on the following games this week:

CFP Rankings

Projected CFP field seeds and games

First-round byes

Projected first-round matchups

(played Dec. 19-20 on campus sites)

Quarterfinals

(Dec. 31 and Jan. 1, sites projected based on projected teams in current rankings)

Semifinals

CFP championship game

Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida, Jan. 19