Georgia playoff scenarios include possible third meeting with Alabama

More recently, both teams benefited from the CFP rankings that came out Tuesday night.

Georgia was a benefactor when the committee chose not to drop Ole Miss (11-1) in the rankings, even though the team will be playing without coach Lane Kiffin, who was told he could not coach Ole Miss in the postseason after accepting the LSU head coach position Sunday.

Ole Miss, currently No. 6, likely represents the “floor” for how low the Bulldogs could drop, as Georgia has a 43-35 regular-season win over the Rebels, along with boasting a stronger schedule.

Alabama benefited from the committee moving it ahead of No. 10 Notre Dame (10-2) in the rankings on the heels of its 27-20 win over Auburn.

The Tide moving up puts the Fighting Irish in the final at-large slot, vulnerable to being knocked out of the CFP field should No. 11 BYU upset No. 4 Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game.

The final rankings, which come out at noon Sunday, will determine the 12-team CFP field and bracket pairings.

Here’s a deep dive into how the rankings might look and some scenarios that would accompany them.

Projecting Georgia in final rankings

Georgia can clinch a first-round bye (via a top-four seed) in the 12-team CFP field with a victory, at the very least holding the No. 3 ranking, and likely would next play in the CFP Sugar Bowl quarterfinal at 8 p.m. Jan. 1 in New Orleans.

It’s possible the Bulldogs could jump the loser of the Big Ten championship game and grab the No. 2 spot, based on schedule strength, or for having beaten Texas 35-10, while Ohio State’s margin of victory over the Longhorns was just 14-7.

CFP selection committee chairman Hunter Yurachek discussed Georgia in the context of comparing the Bulldogs to the team behind them, Texas Tech, which also is 11-1 and is projected to defeat BYU in the Big 12 championship game.

“You look at Georgia, they’ve got wins over Texas, Tennessee, who was previously ranked, Ole Miss and, this past weekend, against a ranked Georgia Tech, their one loss coming at home against Alabama,” Yurachek said. “... Both (Texas Tech and UGA) are really, really strong teams, and Georgia got the nod just based on their strength of schedule and the wins that they have versus Texas Tech.”

If the Bulldogs were to lose to Alabama in the SEC title game, Georgia could stay ahead of idle No. 5 Oregon (11-1) but likely would not fall below current No. 6 Ole Miss (11-1) in the CFP rankings. That would mean UGA would host a first-round game at 8 p.m. Dec. 19 or in one of the triple-header spots — noon, 3:30 p.m. or 7:30 p.m. — Dec. 20 at Sanford Stadium.

Projecting Alabama in the final rankings

The Tide could make a massive jump into the top four if it were to score an impressive win over Georgia and earn a first-round bye.

At the very least, an Alabama win in the SEC title game would assure the Tide of a top-eight seed and would host a first-round playoff game in Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa.

An Alabama loss to Georgia could complicate things, as it is only one ranking spot ahead of Notre Dame, which, at No. 10, is in the last at-large spot in the 12-team field.

If the Tide were to lose by a wide enough margin to Georgia or suffer a significant injury, the CFP selection committee could drop what would be a three-loss Alabama behind the Irish and a 10-2 Miami that currently finds itself out of the projected field at the moment, despite a very strong finish to the season.

Yurachek said that, while Alabama is currently in a “solid” position at No. 9, there has been some back-and-forth in the room over how to measure the Tide against Notre Dame.

“That debate between Notre Dame and Alabama has been one of the fiercest debates for the last three weeks, and it really has split our committee room,” Yurachek said on the Tuesday night CFP conference call.

“We’ve got people that thought highly of Alabama — we all think highly of both of those teams, but some are very much in Alabama’s camp, some are very much in Notre Dame’s camp.”

As for how Miami would measure up in a discussion against a three-loss Tide team, Carson Beck’s recent surge could factor into the debate.

“They’ve won four consecutive games,” Yurachek said of how the committee views the 10-2 Hurricanes. “Carson Beck has been phenomenal, completing 80% of his passes at roughly 1,100 yards and 11 TDs during that time.”

Who Georgia might face in CFP field

Georgia possibilities with SEC title game win

Based on the current projections, if all of the favored teams win, including Georgia over Alabama, the Bulldogs likely would play in the Sugar Bowl against:

• UGA as a No. 2 seed, against winner of projected No. 10 (Alabama) at projected No. 7 (Texas A&M) first-round game, or,

• UGA as a No. 3 seed, against winner of projected No. 11 (Virginia) at projected No. 6 (Ole Miss)

Georgia possibilities with SEC title game loss

If Georgia loses to Alabama but all of the other projected winners are victorious, the Bulldogs likely would fall to No. 5 or No. 6 in the rankings.

• A No. 5-seeded Georgia would play host to the projected No. 12-seed (winner of the North Texas-Tulane American Conference championship game or projected Sun Belt title game winner James Madison).

A Georgia win in that first-round game would advance UGA to play the projected No. 4 seed — either Alabama or Oregon — on Dec. 31 in the Cotton Bowl in Arlington, Texas.

• A No. 6-seeded Georgia would play host to projected ACC championship game winner (Virginia).

A Georgia win over the Cavaliers would advance the Bulldogs to play the projected No. 3-seed, Texas Tech, in the Sugar Bowl.

Who Alabama might face in CFP field

Alabama possibilities with SEC title game win

If Alabama beats UGA, the Tide’s scenario would obviously depend on how high up the committee would move the team in the rankings.

Assuming the Tide wins and all the favorites win …

• Alabama at No. 4 would get a bye and next play in the Cotton Bowl on Dec. 31 against the winner of projected No. 5 seed (Oregon) and projected No. 12 seed (Winner of North Texas-Tulane American title game or James Madison if it wins the Sun Belt title game).

• Alabama at No. 5 would next host a first-round playoff game against the projected No. 12 seed (winner of American Conference title game between North Texas-Tulane or projected Sun Belt title game winner James Madison).

If the Tide were to win that game in this scenario, it would advance to play projected No. 4 seed Oregon in the Cotton Bowl.

Alabama possibilities with SEC title game loss

A loss to Georgia in the SEC championship game would likely drop a 10-3 Tide behind idle Notre Dame to No. 10 in the CFP rankings, provided all of the other favorites win.

The Crimson Tide, as the No. 10 seed, would travel to play a first-round game Dec. 19 or Dec. 20 against projected No. 7 seed Texas A&M.

If Alabama wins that first-round game, the Tide would advance to play the projected No. 2 seed, which would be either the loser of the Big Ten championship game or Georgia.

If the Crimson Tide lose and No. 11 BYU beats No. 4 Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game, Alabama could find itself out of the 12-team CFP field.

Current CFP rankings

With record and strength of schedule

1. Ohio State (12-0), 45th

2. Indiana (12-0), 46th

3. Georgia (11-1), 25th

4. Texas Tech (11-1), 59th

5. Oregon (11-1), 16th

6. Ole Miss (11-1), 40th

7. Texas A&M (11-1), 15th

8. Oklahoma (10-2), 12th

9. Alabama (10-2), 11th

10. Notre Dame (10-2), 42nd

11. BYU (11-1), 35th

12. Miami (10-2), 44th

13. Texas (9-3), 8th

14. Vanderbilt (10-2), 22nd

15. Utah (10-2), 57th

16. USC (9-3), 27th

17. Virginia (10-2), 82nd

18. Arizona (9-3), 61st

19. Michigan (9-3), 26th

20. Tulane (10-2), 78th

21. Houston (9-3), 73rd

22. Georgia Tech (9-3), 68th

23. Iowa (8-4), 17th

24. North Texas (11-1), 125th

25. James Madison (11-1), 118th