Braves have a lot riding on Spencer Strider’s fastball

Opposing hitters would usually have a hard time scoring against Braves starters for four days out of every seven, and the team’s deep bullpen can take care of the rest.

All of that depends on Strider rediscovering the fastball that was key for him as he reached 500 strikeouts in fewer innings than any starting pitcher in MLB history.

“His fastball is the game changer,” Weiss said. “It’s a different fastball. It wasn’t quite the same when he came back last year, but that’s not uncommon after missing time like he did.

“He’s in a good place. The ball is coming out really well, just watching some of the (bullpen sessions).”

We haven’t seen peak Strider since the 2023 season. Strider led MLB in strikeouts that season and finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting. Few pitchers got batters to swing and miss at pitches so often.

That year turned out to be a tease.

Strider made two starts in 2024 before elbow surgery ended his season. He made one start in 2025 before a hamstring injury required a stint on the injured list.

Hitters clobbered Strider’s slower and straighter fastballs last year. Strider said he’s worked more on throwing his fastball less straight than on throwing it harder.

“The (offseason) focus, for me, was mostly on optimal movement, mechanics,” Strider said. “Fastball shape is big one, which is a byproduct of that. Trying to get some range of motion, certain things like that in a spot where I can move the way I need to move to produce the shapes that I need to.

“I think (velocity) is something that I have the ability to throw very hard regardless, so I am not necessarily tracking it in the offseason because there’s just not that much high-intensity throwing. I think there is a cost for that. … For me, it was a lot of reps at lower intensity and drills and things that fit that optimal movement pattern.”

Statcast data shows that when Strider is healthy and moving right, his fastball can make the best hitters in the world look helpless.

From 2022 through 2023, only Sandy Alcantara (98 mph) threw a fastball at a higher average velocity than Strider (97.6) among starters (minimum 250 innings pitched). Strider had the highest strikeout percentage (37.3%) during that span. The gap between Strider and Shohei Ohtani (32.4%) was larger than the gap between Ohtani and No. 10 on the list, Corbin Burnes (28%).

In 2023, Strider’s sizzling fastballs arrived with more vertical movement than all but 15 qualified MLB pitchers. The speed and rise of Strider’s fastball, combined with a release point relatively close to the plate, created a pitch that hitters missed with their bats on 36.8% of swings and chased outside of the strike zone 34.3% of the time.

When hitters managed to hit Strider’s fastball in 2023, the bat made contact “under” the ball 32% of the time.

“That’s what makes his fastball different; it just explodes about halfway to the plate,” Weiss said. “The ball is usually above the bat when his fastball is right. It looks like it’s got that ‘hop’ to it in the bullpen.

“Now, we’re sitting here in February, so we’ve got a long way to go. But as we stand here today, he’s in a really good place.”

Strider never managed to find his form during the 2025 season. He debuted April 16, more than a year after his last MLB start. Strider struck out five Blue Jays hitters over five innings that day, but in a sign of things to come, his velocity and whiff rates were down from 2023.

The hamstring injury pushed his next start to May 20. Strider’s results were hit-or-miss from there. There was a promising stretch from mid-June through July, but Strider produced a 5.66 ERA during nine starts from August through September.

For the season, the average velocity (95.5 mph) and vertical break (16.4 inches) on Strider’s fastball were well below their peaks in 2023. He no longer had a dominant fastball to pair with a sharp slider.

Strider’s strikeouts per nine innings declined to 9.41 in 2025 from 13.55 in 2023. Strider’s FIP (results independent of defense) ballooned from 2.85 in 2023 to 4.53 in 2025.

Strider said he couldn’t manage to fix the shape of his fastball.

“That was the one thing I felt that really never improved last year despite all my efforts, and set me up with a lot of challenge on any given day,” Strider said. “So far, that’s been really good (during camp). Worked really hard at in this offseason with a lot of people. That’s encouraging that it’s paying off so far.

“But it’s got to continue. I have still have to be able to throw strikes and execute off-speed (pitches). I like where things are trending, but it’s not necessarily about where I am now.”

Strider hasn’t pitched in a Grapefruit League game yet. Once he does, it will be a good sign if hitters are taking a lot of fruitless hacks at his fastball by the end of spring training.

The Braves have a lot riding on Strider getting that result often again in the games that count.

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