The Win Column: What to expect when you’re expecting Tua

Hey, y’all. Happy “Kirk Cousins Cut Day” Eve.

More on his potential replacement (and other Falcons reinforcements) momentarily. But first: I need you to help forge the future of the AJC’s sports newsletters.

We’ve got a quick reader survey going and would be much obliged if you’d take a couple minutes to weigh in. You could be the one who convinces us to finally go all in on minor league hockey.

SEEING WHAT STICKS

Credit: Miguel Martinez-Jimenez/AJC

Credit: Miguel Martinez-Jimenez/AJC

Maybe Michael Penix Jr. will get healthy by training camp, compete for and win the job, then blossom into the championship-winning franchise QB the previous Falcons administration foretold.

Or maybe not.

If he doesn’t — if Penix isn’t ready, or if he gets outplayed — fans need to be prepared for the Tua Tagovailoa experience.

And it is, in fact, an experience.

If and when Tagovailoa plays, you can expect …

1️⃣ Short passes: We pulled some numbers and Tagovailoa, the Falcons’ soon-to-be quarterback signing, averaged 6.7 “intended air yards” per attempt last season. Some of that was by design. Lots of quick passes in Mike McDaniel’s Miami scheme. And in fairness, top receiver Tyreek Hill was absent after his knee exploded in Week 4.

But that number ranked 35th in the NFL (which famously has only 32 teams). Even Kirk “Can’t Get It Downfield No More” Cousins averaged a tad better.

In a recent column, the Miami Herald’s Omar Kelly wrote that Tagovailoa “struggled so much opposing defensive coaches openly admitted he became easy to defend since cornerbacks could sit in zone all game waiting for him to make a mistake, and safeties weren’t required to drop more than 40 yards deep because he no longer possessed the arm strength to throw it that far.”

Fun!

2️⃣ Accuracy: Even last season — a 20-touchdown, 15-interception effort in 14 starts — Tagovailoa was considered “on target” on 77% of this throws. His overall completion percentage sat around 68%, good enough for a top-10 finish.

Conversely: Penix can launch it downfield. But in his 14 career games (12 starts), he’s sitting at just under 60% completion percentage.

3️⃣ Lack of mobility: The Alabama faithful (and UGA fans still haunted by 2018) will tell stories about Tagovailoa majestically moving in, around and out of the pocket to make plays.

That’s the Tua of the past, pre-hip injury and repeated concussions.

Because he gets the ball out so fast, Tagovailoa doesn’t take a ton of sacks — but the 30 he accrued in 2025 were the most of his career. He also scrambled just 11 times in 14 games.
The decidedly immobile Penix scrambled 13 times in nine games.

Now, to be clear: Tagovailoa is expected to arrive on a league-minimum $1.3 million contract (while the Dolphins eat roughly $99 million in dead money).

The AJC’s Michael Cunningham deemed Tagovailoa a “solid” and “cheap” choice, while The Athletic gave the signing an A and ESPN declared Tagovailoa a free agency winner.

None of that clashes with the preceding scouting report, because they’re all rightly viewing the arrangement for what it is: the Falcons taking an inexpensive flyer on an experienced starter in case they need one.

If Tagovailoa gets his act together, fabulous. If he doesn’t, he won’t be here long.

And frankly, friends?

The new regime in Flowery Branch might be thinking the same thing about Penix.

What do you think of the Falcons’ initial free agency moves? Shoot me an email to weigh in.

TRIVIA TIME

Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa are two of only three left-handed quarterbacks currently in the NFL. Who’s the other?

Hint: He was a rookie last season.

🔎 Answer at the bottom of the newsletter.

JACKETS DOWN, DAWGS UP

Historically and generally speaking, the laws of nature demand that Georgia Tech is better at men’s basketball than Georgia is — even if it’s just by a little bit.

But Mother Nature is also susceptible to chaos.

And the Bulldogs are miles ahead of the Jackets right now. Just check out the chart.

While Georgia Tech embarks on a coaching search to replace Damon Stoudamire, Georgia’s enjoying a first-round bye before opening its SEC Tournament run on Thursday — and then joining March Madness for the second straight season (bracket reveal: 6 p.m. Sunday on CBS).

Three years in, coach Mike White has things humming.

“It has been a spectacular story of hiring a top-flight coach, giving him the tools to be successful and showing a modicum of patience,” the infamous Paul Finebaum told the AJC this week. “The result is an ascending program that is good and will continue to get better.”

Georgia Tech, not so much.

But with a .522 all-time winning percentage, it does still hold an edge. Georgia’s at .519.

🏀 As for the other guys:

Shouts to Georgia Southern and Spudd Webb, who we told you about back in January. They became just the third NCAA team to ever win five games in five consecutive days, but couldn’t quite pull off the upset in the Sun Belt Conference title game.
Kennesaw State, which rallied after losing its leading scorer to a point-shaving scandal, starts its Conference USA tourney journey on Thursday — a few days after an alleged fixer in the aforementioned scandal pleaded guilty to bribery and wire fraud charges.

HIGH SCHOOL HOOPIN’ (AND HOPIN’)

High school sports are the best. And no disrespect to the perennial powerhouses, but it’s teams like East Laurens girls basketball — which is trying to win the school’s first state title, in anything — make them that way.

“We’ve been hoping and wishing and praying for years and years and years,” coach Danielle Lowther told the inimitable Todd Holcomb. “To be actually within striking distance is surreal.”

State finals get underway Wednesday in Macon. Eleven more teams, boys and girls, are vying for their first hoops championship.

📺 Watch it all on Georgia Public Broadcasting or its livestreams. Check out the full schedule and live updates from the AJC Varsity squad.

WITCHES ARE THE WORST

Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC

Not gonna freak out about yet another Braves pitcher (Joey Wentz) getting hurt (torn ACL) and missing the season. But I am going to request a refund from at least one of those good-for-nothing Etsy witches.

🤔 I’ll also point out that Wentz’s injury basically guarantees Bryce Elder remains the fifth starter … while maybe, possibly, probably speeding up the timetable for JR Ritchie’s big league debut?

The top Braves pitching prospect walked four in his latest Grapefruit League start Tuesday, but surrendered just one hit over four innings.
His fastball came in at a tick under 97 mph and he threw each of his six pitches at least seven times.

He figures to get two-ish more starts before the Braves break camp.

“I’m just trying to keep hammering my process each day and keep my nose to the grindstone a little bit and stay at the work,” Ritchie told the AJC.

All of those phrases mean the same thing. Good attitude though.

💵 Broadcast bucks: The Braves just announced that Braves.TV, their new standalone streaming option for game-watching, will cost $99.99 for the 2026 season. Plans still call for other viewing options on your existing cable/satellite provider, but specifics TBA. More info at braves.com/watch.

↕️ Bonus game: We made a thing where you can create your own Braves batting order (Ha-Seong Kim and Sean Murphy not currently included).

OTHER GOOD STUFF TO KNOW

🤷 The NBA killed the “Magic City Monday” festivities the Hawks lined up for next week (minus the T.I. concert). I still think it was a fine and fun idea — but apparently some of y’all disagree. About 76% of the few dozen readers who responded to last week’s poll poo-pooed the tribute.

The Hawks’ win streak is now up to seven, by the way.

⚽ The World Cup is less than 100 days away and the AJC just launched a new semi-occasional newsletter to celebrate. It’s called “Kick It” and touches on the soccer but is mostly about events and other fun things to know.

Win Column readers will see a sample in their inboxes soon — but won’t get another unless they opt-in. I recommend doing so!

😬 Team USA lost to Italy on Tuesday night and suddenly finds itself in a tight spot at the World Baseball Classic. In order for the Stars and Stripes to advance out of pool play, we’re rooting for the Italians to win again Wednesday night — or for Mexico to win while scoring at least five runs.

Either way, we’ll always have Ozzie Albies hitting the first walk-off homer in WBC history.

PHOTO OF THE WEEK

Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC

Hey man, at least they scored this time.

Thanks for reading to the very bottom of the Win Column. Questions, comments, ideas? Contact me at tyler.estep@ajc.com.

Oh, and the trivia answer: Cleveland’s Dillon Gabriel.

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