Analyzing Twins starter Joe Ryan as a trade target for the Braves

Twins right-hander Joe Ryan is usually near the top of the list in speculation about Braves trade targets. Ryan doesn’t come close to Skubal’s upside, but he’s a high-level starter who would plug seamlessly into any contender’s rotation.

Let’s talk about it.

Ryan’s situation

The Rays haven’t missed on many trades over recent years, but moving Ryan as a prospect for slugger Nelson Cruz was a gaffe. Ryan emerged into a quality starter in Minnesota, and now he’s one of the better pitchers in baseball. He’d perhaps be the No. 1 starter on any pitching staff that doesn’t feature a Skubal, Chris Sale or Paul Skenes type.

The 30-year-old Ryan has a 3.71 ERA over six seasons. This has been his finest campaign thus far, posting a 3.18 ERA in 17 starts. Ryan (5-4) has struck out 108 and walked 19 in 93⅓ innings. He’s not going to blow anybody away with a fastball averaging 93 mph, but he’s become increasingly better at the art of pitching.

He maximizes his gifts and repertoire, which is why this is on track for his third consecutive sub-4.00 ERA campaign. His newly minted knuckle curveball has made a difference; it has been one of the filthiest pitches across baseball this season when utilized properly.

Notably, Ryan’s home run rate is a career low. He was giving up 1.35 homers per nine innings in his career; that number is 0.87 in 2026.

Ryan’s contract

Ryan makes $6.1 million this season, meaning the acquiring team would take on the prorated portion. That adds to his appeal and opens the door for smaller payroll clubs.

His deal includes a $13 million mutual option for 2027. It’s worth noting mutual options might as well not exist, because at least one side is almost sure to decline their end. But Ryan would be arbitration-eligible if the option is declined, so he’ll remain under club control through next season.

That makes him an appealing asset, and perhaps more interesting than Skubal to teams like the Braves that will need rotation help for next season, too.

The Twins’ situation

Minnesota hosted a major sell-off at last summer’s deadline, blowing up much of its roster. The Twins are again middling, playing much better lately but still in third place in a mediocre division. The American League is weak, though, and one strong run could push a team into the playoff mix.

The Twins probably won’t be eager to jettison more talent. Outfielder Byron Buxton, a Georgia native commonly linked with the Braves, has repeatedly made it clear he doesn’t want to be traded. Moving Ryan would be a step backward even with the promising young talent he’d return.

The Twins should pick an avenue — either try to bolster the major league roster over the next year in hopes of competing or reassess the team’s timeline — because staying in the middle doesn’t often create a path to desired results. Perhaps the team can find a deal in which moving Ryan benefits the organization in the nearer and longer term.

The Braves’ situation

Much of what we said about Skubal can be repeated here. Ryan lacks Skubal’s upside, but the acquiring club gets him for two postseason runs rather than one. He also won’t cost a financial premium, which would allow the Braves to spend elsewhere this winter.

Ryan would pair nicely behind Sale for a postseason series. He’d also address an early offseason need — the rotation — that the Braves failed to upgrade last winter. The Braves could attempt to extend Ryan, too. He’s represented by VC Sports Group, which negotiated Robert Suarez’s deal with the team last December.

The cost

Could Ryan ultimately net a larger return than Skubal? It seems unlikely, but there might be more teams more inclined to part with prospects because of Ryan’s contract and health. The Braves would need to pay a premium as the Twins would surely require a top 100 prospect plus more.

The Braves have four top 100 prospects right now (per Baseball America): starter JR Ritchie (No. 55), outfielder Eric Hartman (59), lefty Cam Caminiti (74) and infielder Tate Southisene (92). They’re well stocked with young pitching that could interest the Twins.

There would be a case for Ryan as the best starting pitcher moved from a value standpoint.

Freddy Peralta (Mets) has been middling and he’s a rental. Sonny Gray (Red Sox) makes sense here, but he’s also an older rental at 36 years old. Is Michael Wacha (3.48 ERA) a difference-maker?

Reid Detmers and/or Jose Soriano could be in demand, but there’s skepticism Arte Moreno’s Angels would move them. The Marlins are in the postseason picture, so why would they trade Sandy Alcantara now? Detroit’s Casey Mize is a rental, but the Auburn product is sporting a 2.95 ERA and could be attractive as a Skubal alternative.

But for those seeking a front-line arm and uninclined to bid for Skubal, Ryan is probably the best bet.

Conclusion

A Ryan deal more aligns with a move the Braves typically make as opposed to the headline-grabbing transaction that Skubal would be.

The guess here is Ryan invites even more suitors than Skubal, particularly if the latter doesn’t reestablish himself. The Twins will be in an advantageous position.

Will the Braves be in that market? Would they be willing to win a bidding war? Do they view Ryan as talent that’d help put them over the top? Could the Braves acquire Ryan and then try to extend him beyond next season?

We act like they’ve never outbid other clubs in trades, but both Matt Olson and Sean Murphy were in demand, and Anthopoulos closed the deal because he valued those players enough. We might soon learn how much he’d value Ryan.